The construction industry is heading for a double dip, according to the latest forecast from the Construction Products Associations, and will be the first major UK industry sector to fall back into recession. The recovery seen in the first six months of the year was temporary and the figures deceptive, argues CPA chief executive Michael Ankers: ‘The factors that drove this growth – the short term impact of the last government’s fiscal stimulus; a tentative recovery in the housing market; and the start of a number of major projects in the run up to the Election – are not the basis for a long-term recovery.’ As a result, 2010 is predicted to be a year of two-halves, with output slipping back in the second half due to growing uncertainty in the housing market and cuts to public spending. The CPA is now predicting that public sector work will decline by 18% over the next two years, extending to a fall of 26% over four years. Housing is expected to grow, but at a modest rate that will see output in 2014 still at levels 18% lower than in 2006. Commercial activity is expected to grow from next year, but again is expected to still fall 15% short of 2008 levels in four years' time.